Economic evaluation of forest policy programs.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

Harvesting undelimbed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) from first thinnings for integrated production of kraft pulp and energy

The present study evaluates the feasibility of undelimbed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) for integrated production of pulp and energy in a kraft pulp mill from the technical, economic and environmental points of view, focusing on the potential of bundle harvesting. The feasibility of tree sections for pulp production was tested by conducting an industrial wood-handling experiment, laboratory cooking and bleaching trials, using conventional small-diameter Scots pine pulpwood as a reference. These trials showed that undelimbed Scots pine sections can be processed in favourable conditions as a blend with conventional small-diameter pulpwood without reducing the pulp quality. However, fibre losses at various phases of the process may increase when using undelimbed material. In the economic evaluation, both pulp production and wood procurement costs were considered, using the relative wood paying capability of a kraft pulp mill as a determinant. The calculations were made for three Scots pine first-thinning stands with the breast-height diameter of the removal (6 12 cm) as the main distinctive factor. The supply chains included in the comparison were based on cut-to-length harvesting, whole-tree harvesting and bundle harvesting (whole-tree bundling). With the current ratio of pulp and energy prices, the wood paying capability declines with an increase in the proportion of the energy fraction of the raw material. The supply system based on the cut-to-length method was the most efficient option, resulting in the highest residual value at stump in most cases. A decline in the pulp price and an increase in the energy price improved the competitiveness of the whole-tree systems. With short truck transportation distances and low pulp prices, however, the harvesting of loose whole trees can result in higher residual value at stump in small-diameter stands. While savings in transportation costs did not compensate for the high cutting and compaction costs by the second prototype of the bundle harvester, an increase in transportation distances improved its competitiveness. Since harvesting undelimbed assortments increases nutrient export from the site, which can affect soil productivity, the whole-tree alternatives included in the present study cannot be recommended on infertile peatlands and mineral soils. The harvesting of loose whole trees or bundled whole trees implies a reduction in protective logging residues and an increase in site traffic or payloads. These factors increase the risk of soil damage, especially on peat soils with poor bearing capacity. Within the wood procurement parameters which were examined, the CO2 emissions of the supply systems varied from 13 27 kg m3. Compaction of whole trees into bundles reduced emissions from transportation by 30 39%, but these reductions were insufficient to compensate for the increased emissions from cutting and compaction.

A Critical Evaluation of the MARS Treatment in Finland

The Molecular Adsorbent Recirculating System (MARS) is an extracorporeal albumin dialysis device which is used in the treatment of liver failure patients. This treatment was first utilized in Finland in 2001, and since then, over 200 patients have been treated. The aim of this thesis was to evaluate the impact of the MARS treatment on patient outcome, the clinical and biochemical variables, as well as on the psychological and economic aspects of the treatment in Finland. This thesis encompasses 195 MARS-treated patients (including patients with acute liver failure (ALF), acute-on-chronic liver failure (AOCLF) and graft failure), and a historical control group of 46 ALF patients who did not undergo MARS. All patients received a similar standard medical therapy at the same intensive care unit. The baseline data (demographics, laboratory and clinical variables) and MARS treatment-related and health-related quality-of-life data were recorded before and after treatment. The direct medical costs were determined for a period of 3.5 years.Additionally, the outcome of patients (survival, native liver recovery and need for liver transplantation) and survival predicting factors were investigated. In the outcome analysis, for the MARS-treated ALF patients, their 6-month survival (75% vs. 61%, P=0.07) and their native liver recovery rate (49% vs. 17%, P<0.001) were higher, and their need for transplantations was lower (29% vs. 57%, P= 0.001) than for the historical controls. However, the etiological distribution of the ALF patients referred to our unit has changed considerably over the past decade and the percentage of patients with a more favorable prognosis has increased. The etiology of liver failure was the most important predictor of the outcome. Other survival predicting factors in ALF included hepatic encephalopathy, the coagulation factors and the liver enzyme levels prior to MARS treatment. In terms of prognosis, the MARS treatment of the cirrhotic AOCLF patient seems meaningful only when the patient is eligible for transplantation. The MARS treatment appears to halt the progression of encephalopathy and reduce the blood concentration of neuroactive amino acids, albumin-bound and water-soluble toxins. In general, the effects of the MARS treatment seem to stabilize the patients, thus allowing additional time either for the native liver to recover, or for the patients to endure the prolonged waiting for transplantation. Furthermore, for the ALF patients, the MARS treatment appeared to be less costly and more cost-efficient than the standard medical therapy alone. In conclusion, the MARS treatment appears to have a beneficial effect on the patient outcome in ALF and in those AOCLF patients who can be bridged to transplantation.

Joseph A. Schumpeter's Theory of Social and Economic Evolution : a Reconstruction and Critique

The book presents a reconstruction, interpretation and critical evaluation of the Schumpeterian theoretical approach to socio-economic change. The analysis focuses on the problem of social evolution, on the interpretation of the innovation process and business cycles and, finally, on Schumpeter s optimistic neglect of ecological-environmental conditions as possible factors influencing social-economic change. The author investigates how the Schumpeterian approach describes the process of social and economic evolution, and how the logic of transformations is described, explained and understood in the Schumpeterian theory. The material of the study includes Schumpeter s works written after 1925, a related part of the commentary literature on these works, and a selected part of the related literature on the innovation process, technological transformations and the problem of long waves. Concerning the period after 1925, the Schumpeterian oeuvre is conceived and analysed as a more or less homogenous corpus of texts. The book is divided into 9 chapters. Chapters 1-2 describe the research problems and methods. Chapter 3 is an effort to provide a systematic reconstruction of Schumpeter's ideas concerning social and economic evolution. Chapters 4 and 5 focus their analysis on the innovation process. In Chapters 6 and 7 Schumpeter's theory of business cycles is examined. Chapter 8 evaluates Schumpeter's views concerning his relative neglect of ecological-environmental conditions as possible factors influencing social-economic change. Finally, chapter 9 draws the main conclusions.

Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

Evaluation of the profitability of fast-growing tropical trees.

The profitability of fast-growing trees was investigated in the northeastern and eastern provinces of Thailand. The financial, economic, and tentative environmental-economic profitability was determined separately for three fast-growing plantation tree species and for three categories of plantation managers: the private industry, the state (the Royal Forest Department) and the farmers. Fast-growing tree crops were also compared with teak (Tectona grandis), a traditional medium or long rotation species, and Para rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) which presently is the most common cultivated tree in Thailand. The optimal rotation for Eucalyptus camaldulensis pulpwood production was eight years. This was the most profitable species in pulpwood production. In sawlog production Acacia mangium and Melia azedarach showed a better financial profitability. Para rubber was more profitable and teak less profitable than the three fast-growing species. The economic profitability was higher than the financial one, and the tentative environmental-economic profitability was slightly higher than the economic profitability. The profitability of tree growing is sensitive to plantation yields and labour cost changes and especially to wood prices. Management options which aim at pulpwood production are more sensitive to input or output changes than those options which include sawlog production. There is an urgent need to improve the growth and yield data and to study the environmental impacts of tree plantations for all species and plantation types.